Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Does quality of opposing QB's played during the regular season determine Super Bowl winner?

There is always much debate over whether the quality of the opposing QB and/or teams played during the regular season have a direct effect on the eventual Super Bowl winner?

In other words does the Patriots playing the overused expression "tomato cans" hurt their Super Bowl chances.

My short answer is no. Here are the last 5 Super Bowl winners and the QB's they beat to get to the Super Bowl.

The 2013 Seahawks, 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants played horrible QB's in the regular season.

You decide.

Game2015 Broncos2014-Patriots2013- Seahawks2012-Ravens2011--Giants
1Flacco-WTannehill-LNewton-WDalton-WGrossman-L
2A. Smith- WCassel-WKaepernick-WVick-LBradford-W
3Stafford-WCarr-WHenne-WBrady-WVick-W
4Bridgewater-WA. Smith-LSchaub-WWeeden-WKolb-W
5Carr-WDalton-WLuck-LCassel-WT. Jackson-L
6J. McCown-WOrton-WFitzpatrick-WRomo-WFitzpatrick-W
7Rodgers-WG. Smith-WPalmer-WSchaub-LMoore-W
8Luck-LCutler-WClemens-WWeeden-WBrady-W
9A. Smith- LP. Manning-WGlennon-WPalmer-WA. Smith-L
10Culter-WLuck-WRyan-WLeftwich-WV. Young-L
11Brady-WStafford-WPonder-WRivers-WBrees-L
12Rivers-WRodger-LBrees-WBatch-LRodgers-L
13Carr-LRivers-WKaepernick-LGriffin, III-LRomo-W
14Roethlisberger-LTannehill-WE. Manning-WP. Manning-LGrossman-L
15McCarron-WG. Smith-WPalmer-LE. Manning-WSanchex-W
16Rivers-WOrton-LClemens-WDalton-LRomo-W
17Roethlisberger-WFlacco-WBrees-WLuck-WRyan-W
18Brady-WLuck-WKaepernick-WP. Manning-WRodgers-W
19Newton-WWilson-WP. Manning-WBrady-WA.Smith-W
20   Kaepernick-WBrady-W

New England Patriots Pass/Rush splits thru 6 games in the Belichick era

What are the New England Patriots pass/rush splits thru 6 games each season during the Bill Belichick era you ask? You didn't ask. All right I'll tell you anyway.

You can see that during the Patriots Super Bowl winning seasons, New England is much more balanced on offense. Basically between 48-55 % passes vs runs.

Keep in mind, the Patriots have never won a Super Bowl when they throw the ball more than 55 % of the time.

= Super Bowl winning year.

Sorted by lowest Pass %.

YearWLW/L%CmpAttCmp%YdsTDIntAttYdsY/ATDPass %Rush %
2004601.00010417260.51,3281151857594.1448.2%51.8%
2006510.83310618956.11,1601032037893.9748.2%51.8%
2008420.66712018166.31,078641878154.4749.2%50.8%
2007601.00014820472.51,7372122028504.2550.2%49.8%
2016510.83313319070.01,6041001887193.8750.3%49.7%
2003420.66711219557.41,093671757104.1552.7%47.3%
2012330.50016024365.81,7581032179144.21052.8%47.2%
2014420.66713721663.41,4351121786603.7354.8%45.2%
2001330.50012019860.61,260821635843.6654.8%45.2%
2010510.83313119866.21,2831141616674.1555.2%44.8%
2000240.33312320260.91,1441031585193.3156.1%43.9%
2013510.83313623956.91,370841757234.1357.7%42.3%
2011510.83316023767.52,1031681637444.6659.3%40.8%
2009420.66716525265.51,7301221696984.1659.9%40.1%
2005330.50014523262.51,773851444943.4761.7%38.3%
2002330.50017026165.11,6751491405704.1265.1%34.9%
2015601.00017325168.91,9631611285023.9866.2%33.8%