Can Aaron Judge approach his rookie year HR total in year 2?

Aaron Judge barged on to the MLB scene last season with a historic 52 HR's in his rookie season.

It got me thinking. How did other rookies that hit at least 30 HR's do in their 2nd year?

There are 27 previous seasons where a rookie hit 30 or more HR's.

The next season 25 of 27 (92.6%) hit fewer HR's.

And not only that, the 27 players hit  or 25.7% fewer HR's (881 rookie year - 655 2nd year).

So if you are looking for the approximate HR total for Aaron Judge in 2018, 39 would be the the number. Which is still a good year but not the record setting number he hit in 2017.

Here are the details.

PLAYER	TM	YEAR	ROOKIE HR	2nd YEAR	UP/DOWN
Aaron Judge	NYY	2017	52	(39-Proj)	-
Mark McGwire	OAK	1987	49	32	↓
Cody Bellinger	LAD	2017	39	(29-Proj)	-
Frank Robinson	CIN	1956	38	29	↓
Wally Berger	BSN	1930	38	19	↓
Albert Pujols	STL	2001	37	34	↓
Al Rosen	CLE	1950	37	24	↓
Jose Abreu	CHW	2014	36	30	↓
Mike Piazza	LAD	1993	35	24	↓
Ron Kittle	CHW	1983	35	32	↓
Rudy York	DET	1937	35	33	↓
Hal Trosky	CLE	1934	35	26	↓
Ryan Braun	MIL	2007	34	37	↑
Walt Dropo	BOS	1950	34	11	↓
Jose Canseco	OAK	1986	33	31	↓
Earl Williams	ATL	1971	33	28	↓
Jimmie Hall	MIN	1963	33	25	↓
Chris Young	ARI	2007	32	22	↓
Matt Nokes	DET	1987	32	16	↓
Tony Oliva	MIN	1964	32	16	↓
Tim Salmon	CAL	1993	31	23	↓
Jim Ray Hart	SFG	1964	31	23	↓
Ted Williams	BOS	1939	31	23	↓
Mike Trout	LAA	2012	30	27	↓
Nomar Garciaparra	BOS	1997	30	35	↑
Pete Incaviglia	TEX	1986	30	27	↓
Willie Montanez	PHI	1971	30	13	↓
Bob Allison	WSH	1959	30	15	↓