Monday, July 22, 2019

Red Sox problem is the bullpen??? I beg to differ

All year long Red Sox fans have lamented the fact that Dave Dombrowski didn't replace 2 important pieces of the bullpen. Namely, Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.

 I agree, it wasn't a wise move and it hasn't helped.

However, the pebble in the shoe all year long has been the ≈ $88.0M starting rotation or 36.2% of the payroll on just 5 pitchers.

Blame has to be relative to expectations.

This is where Dombrowski went all in. His assumed logic being that having a strong starting staff and a potent offense would minimize the need for relievers needed in "close" games. And that on or near the deadline, when he saw which relievers were or weren't having breakout years for the Red Sox, fill in the bullpen with minor trades for the hot relievers on out of contention teams.

Regretfully, Dombrowski's plan blew up from Game 1.

Red Sox first 20 games (7-13, .350) the starters were

TEAM GS W L IP HR BB K ERA WHIP
BOS 20 2 11 95 1/3 21 42 85 6.61 1.59

Just a massive underachievement that started the Red Sox season under water after just 20 games.

Red Sox next 60 games (36-24, .600) the starters righted the ship and seemed to be rounding in the form, earning their massive salaries.

Please notice the starters production versus the first 20 games.

TEAM GS W L IP HR BB K ERA WHIP
BOS 60 20 16 322 2/3 37 86 356 3.90 1.18

And finally, the Red Sox last 20 games (11-9, .550) where the Red Sox starters have just imploded again.

TEAM GS W L IP HR BB K ERA WHIP
BOS 20 10 5 102 1/3 22 35 111 5.89 1.51

Now lets's look at where the 2019 Red Sox starters are in relation to 2018 thru 100 games.

YEAR GS W L IP HR BB K ERA WHIP IP/GS
2018 100 48 23 571 71 176 615 3.70 1.21 5.71
2019 100 32 32 520 1/3 80 163 552 4.79 1.32 5.20

So the cry that the bullpen deserves some blame, would be correct. 

But the real culprit in this uneven season is the starting rotation.

Lack of shutdown performances AND length of the outings has put a bigger onus on an already underwhelming bullpen.

Blaming the bullpen is an easy narrative, but it reminds me a struggling company having their $100,000 a year management staff laying off the $15.00 an hour switchboard operator because business has dropped off.

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