Red Sox - Is not having really bad pitching the key to success

Ever since the Boston Red Sox failed to resign Jon Lester, the rally cry has been the Red Sox need an ace. This off season the Red Sox obliged by signing David Price to a lucrative 7-year, $217 million dollar contract. I am not here to tell you that is a bad thing.

However, there might be more something more important than an ace. The ability for the starting pitching staff to avoid giving up more than 5 earned runs in a start. You might say, no shit. You might also say it is unrealistic to expect a pitching staff to not allow 5 earned runs in a start ever. I agree. Look at the numbers over the last 5 years.

First, here is the won/loss record in games in which the Red Sox starter game up at least 5 runs. The chart is based on winning percentage. Look at last year (2015) and what the Sox did in games they let up 5+ runs. (3-35) with a miniscule winning percentage of .079 in 38 games. Basically, a quarter of their schedule (38/162) they had no shot. Now look at the World Series Championship year in 2013. Only 24 games with 5+ runs and a .333 winning percentage. Huge difference. Look at the Bobby Valentine year in 2012. A whopping 47 games with a starter allowing 5+ runs.

YEAR	GAMES	W	L	PCT
2015	38	3	35	0.079
2014	33	3	30	0.091
2013	24	8	16	0.333
2012	47	6	41	0.128
2011	35	11	24	0.314

Here is the Boston Red Sox record for the last 5 years when the starter allows 4 or fewer runs. You can make the playoffs with these type of winning percentages. Look at 2015, if you project that out over a 162 game schedule the Sox would win 98 games.

YEAR	GAMES	W	L	PCT
2015	124	75	49	0.605
2014	129	68	61	0.527
2013	138	89	49	0.645
2012	115	63	52	0.548
2011	127	79	48	0.622

Here are the Red Sox starters over the last 5 years (2011-2015) and the percentage of starts that they gave up more than 5 earned runs from worst to first. Jon Lester is the best pitcher with a minimum of 20 starts over the last five years. Shockingly, Rick Porcello is 2nd to last among pitchers with at least 20 starts.

Name	> = 5 ER	Games Started	Pct
Matt Barnes	2	2	100.0%
Zach Stewart	2	2	100.0%
Daniel Bard	4	10	40.0%
Kyle Weiland	2	5	40.0%
Daisuke Matsuzaka	7	18	38.9%
Aaron Cook	6	18	33.3%
Andrew Miller	4	12	33.3%
Justin Masterson	3	9	33.3%
Jake Peavy	9	30	30.0%
Rick Porcello	8	28	28.6%
Allen Webster	5	18	27.8%
Henry Owens	3	11	27.3%
Tim Wakefield	6	23	26.1%
Wade Miley	8	32	25.0%
John Lackey	18	78	23.1%
Joe Kelly	8	35	22.9%
Clay Buchholz	21	105	20.0%
Alfredo Aceves	2	10	20.0%
Franklin Morales	2	10	20.0%
Eduardo Rodriguez	4	21	19.0%
Felix Doubront	12	66	18.2%
Josh Beckett	9	51	17.6%
Ryan Dempster	5	29	17.2%
Jon Lester	20	118	16.9%
Brandon Workman	3	18	16.7%
Rubby De La Rosa	3	18	16.7%
Steven Wright	1	11	9.1%
Erik Bedard	0	8	0.0%
Anthony Ranaudo	0	7	0.0%
Rich Hill	0	4	0.0%
Craig Breslow	0	2	0.0%
Brian Johnson	0	1	0.0%