Monday, May 9, 2016

Is pitching in MLB at 30 or older now a myth?

We've all heard now for a couple of years that pitchers, once they hit the age of 30, completely fall apart.

Maybe that was true in the days that pitchers were throwing 200 to 250 innings a year. In the modern days of pitchers, where even the elite barely get over 200 innings, maybe starting pitchers over 30 aren't as likely to fail.

I went through all pitchers, whose careers began after 2002, that have thrown 1,000 innings up to the age of 29 and compared then with their stats after they turned 30.

Surprising to say the least. Would I recommend 5-7 year deals, no. But I certainly have a totally different perspective after looking at the numbers.

Note: These numbers are based on the players age on June 30th of each year

Here are the combined numbers.

AGEIPERA
≤ 2947,2133.94
≥ 3013,4913.97
TOTAL60,7043.95

Here are the players and details. I included CC Sabathia, who started in 2001, because his name seems to come up all the time.

AGEPlayerAgeERAGGSIPFromTo
≤ 29Brett Myers21-294.202732161407.3320022010
≥ 30Brett Myers30-324.4610836302.6720112013
≤ 29Carlos Silva23-294.612871531098.3320022008
≥ 30Carlos Silva30-315.152927143.3320092010
≤ 29CC Sabathia20-293.573223222127.0020012010
≥ 30CC Sabathia30-353.97135135890.0020112016
≤ 29Cole Hamels22-293.382452441596.6720062013
≥ 30Cole Hamels30-323.036868454.0020142016
≤ 29Dan Haren22-293.662312221461.6720032010
≥ 30Dan Haren30-343.90160158958.0020112015
≤ 29David Price22-293.092182131441.6720082015
≥ 30David Price30-306.757741.3320162016
≤ 29Edwin Jackson19-294.472652351444.0020032013
≥ 30Edwin Jackson30-325.367927200.0020142016
≤ 29Ervin Santana22-294.332362331475.6720052012
≥ 30Ervin Santana30-333.688585538.3320132016
≤ 29Francisco Liriano21-294.181941671001.0020052013
≥ 30Francisco Liriano30-323.406666384.0020142016
≤ 29Gavin Floyd21-294.461941821127.0020042012
≥ 30Gavin Floyd30-333.163214105.3320132016
≤ 29Gil Meche24-294.381841811070.3320032008
≥ 30Gil Meche30-315.294332190.6720092010
≤ 29Ian Kennedy22-293.931761741066.3320072014
≥ 30Ian Kennedy30-313.883636206.3320152016
≤ 29Jake Peavy21-293.362322321469.6720022010
≥ 30Jake Peavy30-354.04131130817.6720112016
≤ 29James Shields24-293.961851841227.0020062011
≥ 30James Shields30-343.44141141930.6720122016
≤ 29Jered Weaver23-293.242072071320.3320062012
≥ 30Jered Weaver30-333.879090561.0020132016
≤ 29Jeremy Bonderman20-274.892071931176.0020032010
≥ 30Jeremy Bonderman30-305.4018755.0020132013
≤ 29Joe Blanton23-294.301951901202.3320042010
≥ 30Joe Blanton30-354.7611962454.0020112016
≤ 29John Danks22-294.282132131303.3320072014
≥ 30John Danks30-315.003434200.0020152016
≤ 29John Lackey23-293.812072061324.6720022008
≥ 30John Lackey30-374.041871871197.0020092016
≤ 29Johnny Cueto22-293.302262261420.3320082015
≥ 30Johnny Cueto30-303.027750.6720162016
≤ 29Jon Lester22-293.762212201376.3320062013
≥ 30Jon Lester30-322.777070464.6720142016
≤ 29Justin Masterson23-294.242401751141.6720082014
≥ 30Justin Masterson30-305.6118959.3320152015
≤ 29Justin Verlander22-293.402322321553.6720052012
≥ 30Justin Verlander30-333.959393599.3320132016
≤ 29Kyle Kendrick22-294.422261851138.6720072014
≥ 30Kyle Kendrick30-306.322727142.3320152015
≤ 29Matt Cain20-293.392812801811.3320052014
≥ 30Matt Cain30-316.48191791.6720152016
≤ 29Matt Garza22-293.841941911182.3320062013
≥ 30Matt Garza30-314.595352312.0020142015
≤ 29Max Scherzer23-293.582071981239.3320082014
≥ 30Max Scherzer30-313.084040271.6720152016
≤ 29Mike Pelfrey22-294.481821781049.0020062013
≥ 30Mike Pelfrey30-324.944141218.6720142016
≤ 29Oliver Perez20-284.632061951111.6720022010
≥ 30Oliver Perez30-343.362440190.3320122016
≤ 29Paul Maholm23-294.361851851143.6720052011
≥ 30Paul Maholm30-324.148865412.6720122014
≤ 29Ricky Nolasco23-294.491951791113.3320062012
≥ 30Ricky Nolasco30-334.677674434.0020132016
≤ 29Scott Kazmir20-294.162092081180.0020042013
≥ 30Scott Kazmir30-323.516969405.0020142016
≤ 29Tim Lincecum23-293.462212201411.6720072013
≥ 30Tim Lincecum30-314.544841232.0020142015
≤ 29Ubaldo Jimenez22-293.922122111275.6720062013
≥ 30Ubaldo Jimenez30-324.416360345.0020142016
≤ 29Zach Duke22-294.521891681054.6720052012
≥ 30Zach Duke30-333.461891163.6720132016
≤ 29Zack Greinke20-293.653002591669.6720042013
≥ 30Zack Greinke30-322.447171468.6720142016












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