Maybe that was true in the days that pitchers were throwing 200 to 250 innings a year. In the modern days of pitchers, where even the elite barely get over 200 innings, maybe starting pitchers over 30 aren't as likely to fail.
I went through all pitchers, whose careers began after 2002, that have thrown 1,000 innings up to the age of 29 and compared then with their stats after they turned 30.
Surprising to say the least. Would I recommend 5-7 year deals, no. But I certainly have a totally different perspective after looking at the numbers.
Note: These numbers are based on the players age on June 30th of each year
Here are the combined numbers.
AGE | IP | ERA |
≤ 29 | 47,213 | 3.94 |
≥ 30 | 13,491 | 3.97 |
TOTAL | 60,704 | 3.95 |
Here are the players and details. I included CC Sabathia, who started in 2001, because his name seems to come up all the time.
AGE | Player | Age | ERA | G | GS | IP | From | To |
≤ 29 | Brett Myers | 21-29 | 4.20 | 273 | 216 | 1407.33 | 2002 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Brett Myers | 30-32 | 4.46 | 108 | 36 | 302.67 | 2011 | 2013 |
≤ 29 | Carlos Silva | 23-29 | 4.61 | 287 | 153 | 1098.33 | 2002 | 2008 |
≥ 30 | Carlos Silva | 30-31 | 5.15 | 29 | 27 | 143.33 | 2009 | 2010 |
≤ 29 | CC Sabathia | 20-29 | 3.57 | 322 | 322 | 2127.00 | 2001 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | CC Sabathia | 30-35 | 3.97 | 135 | 135 | 890.00 | 2011 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Cole Hamels | 22-29 | 3.38 | 245 | 244 | 1596.67 | 2006 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Cole Hamels | 30-32 | 3.03 | 68 | 68 | 454.00 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Dan Haren | 22-29 | 3.66 | 231 | 222 | 1461.67 | 2003 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Dan Haren | 30-34 | 3.90 | 160 | 158 | 958.00 | 2011 | 2015 |
≤ 29 | David Price | 22-29 | 3.09 | 218 | 213 | 1441.67 | 2008 | 2015 |
≥ 30 | David Price | 30-30 | 6.75 | 7 | 7 | 41.33 | 2016 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Edwin Jackson | 19-29 | 4.47 | 265 | 235 | 1444.00 | 2003 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Edwin Jackson | 30-32 | 5.36 | 79 | 27 | 200.00 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Ervin Santana | 22-29 | 4.33 | 236 | 233 | 1475.67 | 2005 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Ervin Santana | 30-33 | 3.68 | 85 | 85 | 538.33 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Francisco Liriano | 21-29 | 4.18 | 194 | 167 | 1001.00 | 2005 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Francisco Liriano | 30-32 | 3.40 | 66 | 66 | 384.00 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Gavin Floyd | 21-29 | 4.46 | 194 | 182 | 1127.00 | 2004 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Gavin Floyd | 30-33 | 3.16 | 32 | 14 | 105.33 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Gil Meche | 24-29 | 4.38 | 184 | 181 | 1070.33 | 2003 | 2008 |
≥ 30 | Gil Meche | 30-31 | 5.29 | 43 | 32 | 190.67 | 2009 | 2010 |
≤ 29 | Ian Kennedy | 22-29 | 3.93 | 176 | 174 | 1066.33 | 2007 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | Ian Kennedy | 30-31 | 3.88 | 36 | 36 | 206.33 | 2015 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Jake Peavy | 21-29 | 3.36 | 232 | 232 | 1469.67 | 2002 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Jake Peavy | 30-35 | 4.04 | 131 | 130 | 817.67 | 2011 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | James Shields | 24-29 | 3.96 | 185 | 184 | 1227.00 | 2006 | 2011 |
≥ 30 | James Shields | 30-34 | 3.44 | 141 | 141 | 930.67 | 2012 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Jered Weaver | 23-29 | 3.24 | 207 | 207 | 1320.33 | 2006 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Jered Weaver | 30-33 | 3.87 | 90 | 90 | 561.00 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Jeremy Bonderman | 20-27 | 4.89 | 207 | 193 | 1176.00 | 2003 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Jeremy Bonderman | 30-30 | 5.40 | 18 | 7 | 55.00 | 2013 | 2013 |
≤ 29 | Joe Blanton | 23-29 | 4.30 | 195 | 190 | 1202.33 | 2004 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Joe Blanton | 30-35 | 4.76 | 119 | 62 | 454.00 | 2011 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | John Danks | 22-29 | 4.28 | 213 | 213 | 1303.33 | 2007 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | John Danks | 30-31 | 5.00 | 34 | 34 | 200.00 | 2015 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | John Lackey | 23-29 | 3.81 | 207 | 206 | 1324.67 | 2002 | 2008 |
≥ 30 | John Lackey | 30-37 | 4.04 | 187 | 187 | 1197.00 | 2009 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Johnny Cueto | 22-29 | 3.30 | 226 | 226 | 1420.33 | 2008 | 2015 |
≥ 30 | Johnny Cueto | 30-30 | 3.02 | 7 | 7 | 50.67 | 2016 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Jon Lester | 22-29 | 3.76 | 221 | 220 | 1376.33 | 2006 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Jon Lester | 30-32 | 2.77 | 70 | 70 | 464.67 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Justin Masterson | 23-29 | 4.24 | 240 | 175 | 1141.67 | 2008 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | Justin Masterson | 30-30 | 5.61 | 18 | 9 | 59.33 | 2015 | 2015 |
≤ 29 | Justin Verlander | 22-29 | 3.40 | 232 | 232 | 1553.67 | 2005 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Justin Verlander | 30-33 | 3.95 | 93 | 93 | 599.33 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Kyle Kendrick | 22-29 | 4.42 | 226 | 185 | 1138.67 | 2007 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | Kyle Kendrick | 30-30 | 6.32 | 27 | 27 | 142.33 | 2015 | 2015 |
≤ 29 | Matt Cain | 20-29 | 3.39 | 281 | 280 | 1811.33 | 2005 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | Matt Cain | 30-31 | 6.48 | 19 | 17 | 91.67 | 2015 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Matt Garza | 22-29 | 3.84 | 194 | 191 | 1182.33 | 2006 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Matt Garza | 30-31 | 4.59 | 53 | 52 | 312.00 | 2014 | 2015 |
≤ 29 | Max Scherzer | 23-29 | 3.58 | 207 | 198 | 1239.33 | 2008 | 2014 |
≥ 30 | Max Scherzer | 30-31 | 3.08 | 40 | 40 | 271.67 | 2015 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Mike Pelfrey | 22-29 | 4.48 | 182 | 178 | 1049.00 | 2006 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Mike Pelfrey | 30-32 | 4.94 | 41 | 41 | 218.67 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Oliver Perez | 20-28 | 4.63 | 206 | 195 | 1111.67 | 2002 | 2010 |
≥ 30 | Oliver Perez | 30-34 | 3.36 | 244 | 0 | 190.33 | 2012 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Paul Maholm | 23-29 | 4.36 | 185 | 185 | 1143.67 | 2005 | 2011 |
≥ 30 | Paul Maholm | 30-32 | 4.14 | 88 | 65 | 412.67 | 2012 | 2014 |
≤ 29 | Ricky Nolasco | 23-29 | 4.49 | 195 | 179 | 1113.33 | 2006 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Ricky Nolasco | 30-33 | 4.67 | 76 | 74 | 434.00 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Scott Kazmir | 20-29 | 4.16 | 209 | 208 | 1180.00 | 2004 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Scott Kazmir | 30-32 | 3.51 | 69 | 69 | 405.00 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Tim Lincecum | 23-29 | 3.46 | 221 | 220 | 1411.67 | 2007 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Tim Lincecum | 30-31 | 4.54 | 48 | 41 | 232.00 | 2014 | 2015 |
≤ 29 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 22-29 | 3.92 | 212 | 211 | 1275.67 | 2006 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 30-32 | 4.41 | 63 | 60 | 345.00 | 2014 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Zach Duke | 22-29 | 4.52 | 189 | 168 | 1054.67 | 2005 | 2012 |
≥ 30 | Zach Duke | 30-33 | 3.46 | 189 | 1 | 163.67 | 2013 | 2016 |
≤ 29 | Zack Greinke | 20-29 | 3.65 | 300 | 259 | 1669.67 | 2004 | 2013 |
≥ 30 | Zack Greinke | 30-32 | 2.44 | 71 | 71 | 468.67 | 2014 | 2016 |
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